I like math. I'm not a doctor or a scientist, but one thing that seems to be readily available via news sites is a lot of data - number of tests taken, number of positive cases, number of deaths, etc. The New York Times published an article on 3/26/2020: "Where the U.S. Stands Now on Coronavirus Testing" that has all the data available in the U.S. on these numbers.
So I did a little math based on the NY Times article. Again, I'm not an expert in the field, but this gives me something to do to make sense of the information coming in and what it might mean to our country.
As of when the article was published, there had been about 558,000 tests administered across the U.S., with about 75,800 testing positive. That's 13.6% positive rate for all the tests administered. Of these at the time (the number has since grown), there were 1,588 deaths, which works out to be about 2.1% who die after testing positive. If you take a straight extrapolation from those percentages and apply it to the entire U.S. population (about 327 million), you get a number of about 44.5 million people who will test positive for coronavirus and 934,500 projected deaths.
But this projection doesn't take into account any variables, positive or negative - such as slowing rates by practicing social distancing (or increasing rates for places NOT practicing social distancing), and whether there will be "side" deaths (people who aren't positive for coronavirus, but who die from a cause they can't get treated for while hospitals are overwhelmed, such as cancer, organ transplants, etc., which most hospitals have since cancelled. While these deaths won't be DIRECTLY due to coronavirus, I think they should still be laid at coronavirus's door, since life-saving operations have been postponed/canceled recently due to lack of space).
That's a scary number. Hopefully it's a number that can be changed for the better with social distancing practices. Hopefully we've gotten to state lockdowns in time to prevent more spread. Hopefully the experimental drug treatments being tried in hospitals right now will prevent future patient deaths.
But whatever happens, this is an experience that has changed - and will change - all of us. Not just in this country, but around the world. This is a pivotal event of our lives, just like WWII was for my grandparents' generation. There will be common questions asked down the road: "Where were you locked down during the pandemic? Did you get the coronavirus? Who did you know who died?"
Anyways, musings that probably everyone is having right now. Hope you are all staying healthy during these days, and I'll be seeing you again after lockdown. Stay safe.
Just to let everyone know, all the writerly events I was involved with in March this month have been canceled. Here's the official announcement from the Fairfield Scribes' page:
So I'd like to wish everyone a happy and healthy March, and hope to see you at some rescheduled writing events in April and May!
I am so thrilled to announce that my debut novel The Rose Queen is now a 2019 finalist for The Wishing Shelf Book Award. It's a fantastic contest from the UK, where the finalists and winners are chosen by the book's audience. So my YA book was read by teens, who picked it to be one of the finalists!
Although I'll never know the "judges" who picked my book, I want to thank all of them - I'm so glad you enjoyed it! While the sequel has been delayed from 2019 publication, it's in the works. And it's even more exciting than book 1! To give you a hint... expect war and terrible battles, true love and family ties, betrayal and redemption, ultimate sacrifices and death-defying magic.
On Sunday, March 15, WestportWRITES at The Westport Library will welcome the Fairfield Scribes to celebrate Ray Bradbury's 100th birthday! Writers are encouraged to draw inspiration from the legendary author of The Martian Chronicles and Fahrenheit 451 to write their own short story. After a brief writing session, attendees will get one-on-one time with the editors to help hone their stories and brainstorm ideas.
All writers attending the workshop will receive an invitation to submit their stories to the Westport Library's new anthology, to be published on September 1st. Authors published in the anthology will have an opportunity to read excerpts at the annual Saugatuck StoryFest at the end of September.
Several writers from the Fairfield Scribes (Edward Ahern, Elizabeth Chatsworth, P.C. Keeler and me!) will open the workshop with a conversation about Ray Bradbury's great contributions to literature. Then we'll take a break to do some writing and will reconvene for small group sessions with the editors.
The seminar will be held on Sunday, March 15 from 1pm-4pm at Brooks Place Room in the library, located at 20 Jesup Road in Westport. You can find out more information about the panel HERE.
Hope to see you there!
I'll be back at KGB Bar this Friday with some BRAND NEW fiction that has never before seen the light of day (or been heard in the voice of its author). The literary and humor writer Paul Beckman runs a monthly reading series the first Friday of every month in the Red Room (3rd floor) at KGB Bar in New York City called "F Bomb NY: Flash Fiction Reading Series." I'll be there with the fabulous writers Andrea Marcusa, Jenn Stroud Rossmann, Michael Mongiello, Daniel Galef, and Ron Kolm.
So stop by to hear some great stories and have a drink or two. KGB Bar is located at 85 E 4th Street, and the event will take place from 7-9pm. Hope to see you there!
Merry Christmas, all!
As some of you who follow my comic might have noticed, I took a bit of a break from penning Toddler Times during the fall. Life has just been a bit too hectic recently. But one of my New Year's resolutions was to resume, and the above photo (which was one of my MANY attempts at taking a picture for our annual Christmas card) inspired this comic:
And there will hopefully be many more moments of silliness to capture in the new year.
Have a great holiday season, and see you in 2020!!!
I'm so thrilled to announce that The Rose Queen has recently gotten some amazing recognitions.
First off, it was named as a fantasy finalist for IAN's (Independent Author Network) 2019 Book of the Year. I'm very thrilled to have my book in such great company as other indie authors and finalists A.M. Manay, Suzie Plakson, Geoffrey Saign, Michael Lynes, Michael G. Munz, and Kathleen McClure.
Next, it was ALSO named as a finalist for the 2019 Literary Classics Book Award (winner to be announced on November 15th).
I'm so excited that my debut novel is doing so well! The publication of Book 2 in the series has been delayed, but will be coming out next year. It's even bigger and badder than Book 1, so stay tuned!
Looking for some tips on writing and getting published? Come join me and fellow Fairfield Scribes' writers and editors Gabi Coatsworth and Edward Ahern, in addition to the Poets' Salon's poets Edward Ahern, paul Bluestein, David Boston, and Jack Powers, in some practical workshops this weekend on how to write and edit your work for publication.
The conference is this Saturday from 9am-4:30pm, with some great panels by various local authors, including us. It's completely FREE to attend, but requires registration, since space is limited. You can sign up to attend the conference HERE.
Hope to see you there!
Who the heck is Alison McBain?
I am a freelance writer and poet with nearly a hundred short pieces published in magazines and anthologies. If the Walking Dead isn't on, I draw pictures and do origami meditation in Connecticut, where I live with my family. If the Walking Dead is on... shhhh! The Walking Dead is on! For more info, please check out my "About Me" page.
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